Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 1.929944 2.038075 2.151334 2.279213 2.420072 2.571056 2.745879
2025-07-13 1.788491 1.941066 2.108395 2.307015 2.538345 2.801804 3.128308
2025-07-20 1.705086 1.885989 2.090917 2.343198 2.649663 3.015737 3.495529
2025-07-27 1.644049 1.846187 2.081234 2.379453 2.754946 3.222684 3.867948
2025-08-03 1.570015 1.783340 2.036400 2.365109 2.791002 3.340086 4.131259
2025-08-10 1.506795 1.728223 1.995419 2.349652 2.820394 3.446535 4.386219
2025-08-17 1.448326 1.674868 1.952241 2.326519 2.835104 3.530804 4.614888
2025-08-24 1.395892 1.625882 1.911106 2.302082 2.844175 3.605122 4.833850
2025-08-31 1.359948 1.595612 1.891714 2.304250 2.888437 3.731403 5.146741
2025-09-07 1.331970 1.573896 1.881771 2.317650 2.948107 3.883874 5.520922
2025-09-14 1.288811 1.530540 1.840963 2.285539 2.938543 3.928199 5.714305
2025-09-21 1.248499 1.489326 1.801116 2.252331 2.924484 3.963066 5.893670
2025-09-28 1.204686 1.442568 1.752702 2.205575 2.888518 3.961936 6.011022
2025-10-05 1.189674 1.433517 1.755077 2.231670 2.965273 4.152253 6.525579
2025-10-12 1.178525 1.429001 1.763132 2.265918 3.056412 4.375194 7.148848
2025-10-19 1.168071 1.424862 1.771243 2.300221 3.149518 4.610925 7.851913
2025-10-26 1.142972 1.399736 1.748616 2.286652 3.162727 4.702406 8.247000
2025-11-02 1.118981 1.375369 1.726117 2.272026 3.172847 4.788500 8.647680
2025-11-09 1.094072 1.348990 1.699780 2.250131 3.168955 4.846896 8.991649
2025-11-16 1.070057 1.323198 1.673433 2.226994 3.161312 4.896887 9.325412
2025-11-23 1.054594 1.308972 1.663405 2.229047 3.197596 5.038266 9.949132
2025-11-30 1.042908 1.299708 1.660248 2.241735 3.253323 5.225503 10.765991
2025-12-07 1.019741 1.273511 1.631214 2.211326 3.229018 5.240453 11.054384